SportsDayHS staff writer Joseph Hoyt breaks down Week 7’s biggest games, impact players to watch and picks his winners.
One note about win expectancy: The model used to determine our computer rankings, which can be found online, gives each team in our database a rating. That rating fluctuates with each game depending on whether a team won or lost, the margin of victory, the quality of competition in that game and previous year’s results. When looking at a matchup, the model looks at the difference between the two teams’ ratings to give a win expectancy — shown as a percentage — for each team in the game.
This year, beginning in Week 4, the computer has accurately predicted the winner in 75.8 percent of games played going 248-72-7. The seven draws are for 50-50 games the model determined as toss-ups.
All games at 7:30 p.m. Friday unless noted.
Frisco Independence vs. Frisco Lone Star
Where: The Ford Center at The Star (Thursday at 7 p.m.)
Frisco Lone Star, led by a swarming defense and Stanford-bound receiver Marvin Mims, has dominated this season, outscoring opponents by 222 points. Only two 5A teams in the area have a better point differential — one being Independence. Containing quarterback Braylon Braxton and the Independence offense won’t be easy.
Hoyt’s pick: Frisco Lone Star 42, Frisco Independence 28
Computer win expectancy: Frisco Lone Star (70%)
Lovejoy vs. Frisco Reedy
Where: Frisco ISD Memorial Stadium (Thursday at 7 p.m.)
Frisco Reedy bounced back from a close, last-minute loss to Frisco with a 40-0 win over Frisco Memorial last week. The Lions, led by do-it-all, all-state selection Will Harbour, will get another test Thursday against Lovejoy and quarterback R.W. Rucker, who has 20 total touchdowns and also leads the Leopards in rushing.
Hoyt’s pick: Lovejoy 28, Frisco Reedy 24
Computer win expectancy: Frisco Reedy (61%)
Bishop Dunne vs. Parish Episcopal
Where: Parish Episcopal (Friday at 7 p.m.)
This isn’t only a battle of two top-5 TAPPS teams in the area, but a battle of probably two of the better defenses in the area. Parish Episcopal has allowed 15 points in the three games that weren’t played against TC-Cedar Hill. Dunne, the defending state champions, has allowed one offensive score in the last two games.
Hoyt’s pick: Bishop Dunne 17, Parish Episcopal 14
Computer win expectancy: Bishop Dunne (60%)
Hebron vs. Flower Mound Marcus
Where: Flower Mound Marcus (7 p.m.)
Flower Mound Marcus struggled offensively in a 28-14 Week 1 loss to Arlington Bowie, but has clicked since, scoring 194 points over its four-game win streak. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and running back Ty’son Edwards are both high up on the 6A area leaderboards. Hebron, led by dual-threat quarterback Carson Harris, have the potential to keep up offensively.
Hoyt’s pick: Flower Mound Marcus 28, Hebron 27
Computer win expectancy: Hebron (62%)
Keller vs. Northwest Eaton
Where: Northwest ISD Stadium (Friday at 7 p.m.)
Northwest Eaton is one of two teams in District 5-6A that hasn’t lost, joining No. 2 Southlake Carroll, but that doesn’t mean a playoff spot is secured. Four other teams in the district are 1-1 and Trophy Club Byron Nelson, winless so far, has lost by four or less points in three games. Keller, at 1-1 in district, could add more parity with a win.
Hoyt’s pick: Keller 24, Northwest Eaton 21
Computer win expectancy: Keller (52%)
Prosper vs. Jesuit
Where: Jesuit (Friday at 7 p.m.)
Prosper has been dominant so far this season, outscoring opponents by an average of more than 30 points per game during its 5-0 start. The defense has held opponents to just over 200 total yards per game. Jesuit has won three-straight games since the return of EJ Smith, the top-ranked running back in the SportsDayHS Top 100.
Hoyt’s pick: Prosper 35, Jesuit 21
Computer win expectancy: Prosper (79%)
Coriscana vs. Royse City
Where: Royse City
Corsicana lost in the first game of Hal Wasson’s return to the sideline, but hasn’t since, scoring 169 points in its five wins. Sophomore quarterback Solomon James has been impressive, totaling 16 touchdowns so far. Royse City is coming off its first loss of the season, a 38-21 defeat to Ennis.
Hoyt’s pick: Corsicana 21, Royse City 20
Computer win expectancy: Corsicana (55%)
Mansfield Summit vs. Cedar Hill
Where: Cedar Hill
Mansfield Summit has been perfect starting the season with a 5-0 record. Those five opponents, however, have combined for a 6-20 record so far, raising questions about where Summit stands among the area’s best. This week’s game against No. 7 Cedar Hill, undefeated aside from losses to Allen and Denton Guyer, will answer that.
Hoyt’s pick: Cedar Hill 35, Mansfield Summit 28
Computer win expectancy: Cedar Hill (54%)
Waxahachie vs. Mansfield Lake Ridge
Where: Mansfield’s Vernon Newsom Stadium
The bad news: both Waxahachie and Mansfield Lake Ridge are winless in the district that’s been named the “District of Doom” since realignment. The good news: one team will walk away with a win after Friday (barring a tie, of course). Waxahachie’s Brandon Hawkins and Lake Ridge’s Tameron Derrough have proven to be two of the best big-play receivers in 6A.
Hoyt’s pick: Mansfield Lake Ridge 38, Waxahachie 31
Computer win expectancy: Mansfield Lake Ridge (67%)
Rockwall vs. Rockwall-Heath
Where: Rockwall’s Wilkerson-Sanders Stadium
The I-30 Classic features two of the best sophomore quarterbacks in the state. Rockwall-Heath’s Josh Hoover is the first 6A quarterback to eclipse the 2,000-yard passing mark. Rockwall’s Braedyn Locke, recently offered by SMU and Arkansas, is right behind him. It could be a high-scoring battle for Rockwall as both teams enter scoring above 39 points per game.
Hoyt’s pick: Rockwall 56, Rockwall-Heath 35
Computer win expectancy: Rockwall (85%)
Spotlight: Euless Trinity vs. Haltom
Where: Birdville Fine Arts/Athletic Complex
Trinity lost only one game a season ago: 48-34 to Haltom, a team that surprised many by going undefeated in the regular season and winning the District 3-6A title. Now Trinity, looking like the Trojans of old, will have a chance for revenge. Haltom has struggled after the best season in school history, starting off 2-3.
Hoyt’s pick: Euless Trinity 28, Haltom 10
Computer win expectancy: Euless Trinity (75%)
Hot ticket: Arlington vs. Arlington Bowie
Where: Arlington’s Wilemon Field (Friday at 7 p.m.)
The Arlington offense, with first-year starting quarterback Kris Sims, has been electric this season, scoring more than 38 points each game, including more than 70 the last two weeks. The undefeated Colts will need that against Arlington Bowie, which averages nearly 40 points per game and has only lost to Rockwall. Bowie quarterback Drevvon Ponder leads the team in rushing and has 15 total touchdowns.
Hoyt’s pick: Arlington 45, Arlington Bowie 28
Computer win expectancy: Arlington (67%)